Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 12.474581 14.037249 15.805036 17.970948 20.578011 23.647392 27.583658
2025-05-11 10.622457 12.638351 15.112383 18.435044 22.882581 28.788949 37.518497
2025-05-18 9.293466 11.443634 14.221232 18.183357 23.889383 32.161852 45.821511
2025-05-25 8.355640 10.560825 13.524257 17.958692 24.740953 35.343110 54.705916
2025-06-01 7.681412 9.922627 13.036751 17.893964 25.732775 38.873286 65.358438
2025-06-08 7.022773 9.223833 12.361799 17.418238 25.939443 41.079892 74.345276
2025-06-15 6.588759 8.795360 12.021881 17.393558 26.856772 44.738709 87.975375
2025-06-22 6.039386 8.148147 11.283531 16.618830 26.307014 45.421857 94.998413
2025-06-29 5.545347 7.545440 10.559422 15.779982 25.499332 45.384680 100.206773
2025-07-06 5.172430 7.099317 10.043210 15.236952 25.162865 46.275063 108.547206
2025-07-13 5.290747 7.410462 10.755701 16.923298 29.492255 58.999267 163.535378
2025-07-20 5.177097 7.347006 10.844729 17.485390 31.626725 67.252498 212.820273
2025-07-27 4.851922 6.934997 10.331992 16.887366 31.198553 68.763665 236.404879
2025-08-03 4.723106 6.833865 10.345359 17.316236 33.218525 78.201735 316.568040
2025-08-10 4.504130 6.568705 10.048202 17.085496 33.619887 82.879292 379.756787
2025-08-17 4.308240 6.329838 9.778880 16.879611 34.046063 87.890920 460.031574
2025-08-24 4.149342 6.143727 9.590239 16.820274 34.843005 94.678395 581.551633
2025-08-31 3.952161 5.881365 9.243326 16.383944 34.552095 97.264721 672.795022
2025-09-07 3.823670 5.730527 9.092994 16.361297 35.406335 105.022416 878.951680
2025-09-14 3.617434 5.434665 8.652188 15.649811 34.176040 103.300609 930.415132
2025-09-21 3.416232 5.139958 8.199470 14.878176 32.671822 99.906564 942.806611
2025-09-28 3.260108 4.918679 7.876278 14.377936 31.908315 99.770624 1033.035080
2025-10-05 3.353471 5.141900 8.419183 15.929557 37.702422 135.965312 2896.460420